ICT Predictions 2009

The Canberra Times newspaper included an item with predictions of what will happen with computers and telecommunications in 2009 ("Big loads in gloomy paths", Simon Grouse, Canberra Times, 5 January 2009). Here is a summary of mine (much the same as for 2008):

... Moore's law will result in the ICT spend reducing in 2009, while delivering more service.

Telcos will sell a lot of 3G wireless broadband accounts, with the price dropping significantly.

Small laptop "netbooks" ... costing $500 dominate the laptop market. Netbooks will come with 3G wireless built in and many will be sold on plans with a broadband account, like mobile phones. Netbooks with 3G will be routinely issued by employers to their staff for working away from the office and purchased by home users as a second home computer for use from the kitchen bench. ...

The National Broadband Network tender process will be cancelled and a new strategy incorporating wireless broadband ... will be announced ... as an "enhancement" to the policy. Telstra will get some of the business as a result, but not as much as it would like.

The attempt to rationalise the Government's existing servers into a few large data centres will be abandoned ... Instead ... new energyand space-efficient equipment ... will reduce the number of servers needed to one for each 50 existing servers and reduce the space needed to house them by 100 times.

The 10,000 m2 ... of large government data centre space the Gershon Report found in Canberra, will be reduced to about 100sgm. Private enterprise ... wanting to build large commercial data hosting services will be disappointed by the small size of the requirements.

Big screen iPhone-like smart phones will keep being released and by the end of 2009, some useful business applications will arrive to justify their purchase by business and government.

The Australian Computer Society's Green ICT course will become the internationally recognised standard certification for the industry. ICT professionals will start including energy and carbon emission estimates in their ICT plans. Many will go on to become the chief sustainability officer of their organisation, covering more than just computers. Promoted by climate change concerns, new hardware and software will result in a lower ICT budget for most organisations.

Due to the concentration of government jobs in Canberra, its poor public transport and child-minding shortages, the city will lead Australia in teleworking. ...

By mid-year the Government will have got its online policy consultation to work. ... public servants will find it more effective to submit proposals through this process than through ... internal committee systems. As a result most interdepartmental committees will become virtual ...

From: Big loads in gloomy paths - Page 4, Simon Grouse, Canberra Times, 5 January 2009

Also quoted were: Ann Stewart, Australian Government Chief Information Officer; Kevin Miller, IDC managing director, Pacific region; Kevin Noonan, Head of consulting, Intermedium; Ian Birks, Chief executive officer, Australian Information Industry Association; Brand Hoff, Founder of Tower Software and director of NICTA; David Bryant, Chair of the Canberra branch of the Australian Computer Society and Alex Zelinsky Director, CSIRO ICT Centre; Richard Harris, Vice-president research, Gartner Asia-Pacific; and Matthew Purcell, The Silicon Kid.